European Journal of Business Science and Technology 2021, 7(2):186-197 | DOI: 10.11118/ejobsat.2021.016
The Empirical Linkage between Oil Prices and the Stock Returns of Oil Companies
- 1 Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic
This paper identifies the relationship between changes in oil prices and the returns of the world's highest-producing oil companies. Oil companies are divided into state-owned (national) and private companies. This paper focused on three different time periods to identify the relationship between changes in oil price and stock market returns by examining the specific backgrounds of each period. The results revealed that during oil's bearish market, it was more beneficial for investors to prefer state-owned companies to optimise their portfolios. The risk analysis focused on systematic risk, and the beta coefficients confirmed that state-owned companies are less sensitive to market shocks. State-owned companies are supported by governments during periods of downtrends in oil prices; therefore, they are less likely to go bankrupt. However, these companies do not have as much flexibility as private companies to cut their costs; therefore, they are more negatively affected by market movements not defined by shocks.
Keywords: oil shock, stock markets, state-owned companies
JEL classification: G12, G15, Q02
Received: December 2, 2021; Revised: December 21, 2021; Accepted: December 21, 2021; Published: December 21, 2021 Show citation
ACS | AIP | APA | ASA | Harvard | Chicago | IEEE | ISO690 | MLA | NLM | Turabian | Vancouver |
References
- ALHAYKI, Z. 2014. The dynamic co-movements between oil and stock market returns in the case of GCC countries. Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 103-113.
- ALQUATTAN, A. A. and ALHAYKY, A. 2016. Impact of oil prices on stock markets: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) financial markets. Amity Journal of Finance, Vol. 1, No. 1. ISSN: 2455-9741.
- AROURI, M. E. H., LAHIANI, A., BELLALAH, M. 2010. Oil price shocks and stock market returns in oil-exporting countries: The case of GCC countries. International Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 2, No. 5, pp. 132¬-139.
Go to original source...
- AROURI, M., and RAULT, C. 2012, Oil prices and stock markets in GCC countries: empirical evidence from panel analysis. International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol.17, pp. 242-253.
Go to original source...
- BASHER, S. A. and SADORSKY, P. 2006. Oil price risk and emerging stock markets. Global Finance Journal. Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 224-251. ISSN:1044-0283.
Go to original source...
- BERNANKE, B. 2016. The relationship between stocks and oil price. Available at: www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/02/19/the-relationship-between-stocks-and-oil-prices/.
- BP. 2018. Energy outlook. Available at: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018.pdf.
- BROADSTOCK, D. C. and FILIS, G. 2014. Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Vol. 33, No. C, pp. 417-433. ISSN: 1042-4431.
Go to original source...
- BROOKS, C. H. 2008. Introductory econometrics for finance. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-69468-1.
- CONG, R. et al. 2008. Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China. Energy Policy, Vol. 36, No. 9, pp. 3544-3553. ISSN: 0301-4215.
Go to original source...
- CUNADO, J. and PEREZ DE GARCIA, F. 2005. Oil prices, economic activity, and inflation:
- Evidence for some Asian economies. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 65-83. ISSN: 1062-9769.
- DHAOUI, A. and KHRAIEF, N. 2014. Empirical linkage between oil price and stock
- stock market returns and volatility: Evidence from international developed markets. Economics. Available at: www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2014-12.
- EDIGER, V. S., BOWLUS, J. V., DURSUN, A. F. 2021. State capitalism and hydrocarbon security in China and Russia. Energy Strategy Reviews. Vol. 38, 100725.
Go to original source...
- EIA. 2017. Energy Information Agency. Available at www.eia.gov/beta/international/rankings/#?prodact=53-1&cy=2016.
Go to original source...
- FATTOUH, B. 2011. An anatomy of the crude oil pricing system. Oxford: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN: 9781907555206.
- GARCIA, J. 2016. Financial performance in upstream, downstream, and integrated oil companies in response to oil price volatility. Available at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1037&context=finnuht.
- GORST, I. 2007. Lukoil: Russia's largest oil company. James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, pp. 47-52.
- GUTIÉRREZ, D. S., PAZ, M. J., VITE, A. M. 2021. Factors that explain the results of the national oil companies: The impact of the fiscal role on Pemex's results, Resources Policy, Vol. 74, 102280. ISSN 0301-4207.
Go to original source...
- HASAN, S. and MAHBOBI, M. 2013. The increasing influence of oil prices on the Canadian stock market. The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 27 -39.
- HEFNER, R. A. 2014. The United States of gas: Why the shale revolution could have happened only in America. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 93, No. 3.
- HIGSON C., HOLLY, S., KATTUMAN, P., PLATIS, T. 2004. The business cycle, macroeconomic shocks, and the cross-section: The growth of U.K. quoted companies. Economica, Vol. 71(281), pp. 299-318. ISSN: 1468-0335.
Go to original source...
- INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY. 2021. Crude oil production (EJ). Atlas of energy. Available at: http://energyatlas.iea.org/#!/tellmap/-1920537974.
- JIMÉNEZ-RODRIGUES, R. and SANCHEZ, M. 2005. Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: Empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 201-228. ISSN: 0003-6846.
Go to original source...
- KILIAN, L. and LEE, T. K. 2014. Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 42, pp. 71-87.
Go to original source...
- KILIAN, L. and MURPHY, D.P. 2014. The role of inventories and speculative trading in the global market for crude oil. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 454-478.
Go to original source...
- LIS, B., NESSLER, C., RETZMAN, J. 2012. Oil and cars: The impact of crude oil prices on the stock returns of automotive companies. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues. Vol. 2., No. 2., pp. 190-200. ISSN: 2146-4138
- MAHDAVI, S. and SOHRABIAN A. 1991. The link between the rate of growth of stock prices and the rate of growth of GNP in the United States: A granger causality test. The American Economist, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 41-48.
Go to original source...
- MALIK, F. and HAMMOUDEH, S. 2007. Shock and volatility transmission in the oil, US and Gulf equity markets. International Review of Economics & Finance, Vol. 16, No. 16, pp. 357-368.
Go to original source...
- MASIH, R., PETERS, S., MELLO, L. D. 2010. Oil price volatility and stock price fluctuations in an emerging market: Evidence from South Korea. Available at: https://ecomod.net/sites/default/files/document-conference/ecomod2003/Peters.pdf.
- NGUYEN, C. C. and BHATTI, M. I. 2012. Copula model dependency between oil prices and stock markets: Evidence from China and Vietnam. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 758-773. ISSN: 1042-4431.
Go to original source...
- NORLAND, E. 2017. Economics of oil-equity correlations. Available at: https://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/why-are-equities-moving-in-tandem-with-oil.pdf.
- ONOUR, I. A. 2007. Impact of oil price volatility on Gulf Cooperation Council markets' return. OPEC Review, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 171-189.
Go to original source...
- PIROG, R. 2007. The role of national oil companies in the international oil market. Available at: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e1c9/2675def6ea527370f9aaf1cbe7441556e7cd.pdf.
- ROGERS, J. 2008. Žhavé komodity: Jak může kdokoliv investovat se ziskem na světových trzích. Praha: Grada. ISBN: 978-80-247-2342-6.
- SILL, K. 2007. The macroeconomics of oil shocks. Business Review, pp. 21-31.
- SHAHARUDIN, R., SAMAD, F., BHAT, S. 2009. Performance and Volatility of Oil and Gas Stocks: A Comparative Study on Selected O&G Companies. International Business Research, Vol. 11, No. 7, pp. 87-99.
Go to original source...
- SCHOLTENS, B. and WANG, L. 2008. Oil risk in oil stocks. The Energy Journal, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 89-111.
Go to original source...
- S&P Dow Jones Indices. 2017. Index finder. Available at: www.spindices.com/.
- STATISTA. 2018. Average price to produce one barrel of oil in top oil producing countries worldwide in 2015. Available at: www.statista.com/statistics/597669/cost-breakdown-of-producing-one-barrel-of-oil-in-the-worlds-leading-oil-producing-countries/.
- YAHOO FINANCE. 2021. Arca oil index. Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EXOI/history?p=%5EXOI .
- YAHOO FINANCE. 2021. BP p.l.c. Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BP/history?p=BP .
- YAHOO FINANCE. 2021. Crude Oil. Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history?p=CL%3DF .
- YAHOO FINANCE. 2021. Equinor ASA. Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQNR.OL/history?p=EQNR.OL .
- YAHOO FINANCE. 2021. Exxon Mobil Corporation. Available at:https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history?p=XOM .
- YAHOO FINANCE. 2021. PJSC Lukoil. Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LUKOY/history?p=LUKOY .
- YAHOO FINANCE. 2021. PetroChina Copmany Limited. Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PTR/history?p=PTR .
- YAHOO FINANCE. 2021. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. Limited. Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PBR/history?p=PBR .
- YAHOO FINANCE. 2021. S&P 500. Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC .
- ZAKARIA, F. 2005. Budoucnost svobody: Neliberální demokracie v USA i ve světě. Praha: Academia. ISBN: 80-200-1285-0.
- ZAKARIA, S. and ABDALLA, S. 2013. Modelling the the impact of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns in an emerging market: The case of Saudi Arabia. Interdisciplinary Journal of Research in Business. Vol. 2, No. 10, pp.10-20. ISSN: 2046-7141
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0), which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.