European Journal of Business Science and Technology 2016, 2(1):23-31 | DOI: 10.11118/ejobsat.v2i1.56

Financial Vulnerability, Capital Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from China (2005-2014)

Chun-peng Zhang1, Rong Kang1, Chen Feng1
School of Economics and Management, Northwest University, Xi'an, China

Taking the leading role of the banking industry in the financial system into consideration, this paper constructed a financial vulnerability index by using the method of principal component analysis, and found China's financial vulnerability showed a slightly upward trend in general. In order to confirm the macro factors affecting financial fragility, dynamic regression models were constructed. As a result, the authors obtained seven major macro factors. Finally, the authors determined that an overheated economy, increasing inflation, excessive growth of the country's fiscal expenditures, and export shocks will increase financial vulnerability. However, the increasing investment in real estates and fixed assets may reduce the risk in the financial market. Therefore, China needs to adapt to the new normal economic development model, weaken government intervention in the financial markets, deepen financial reforms, and maintain steady development in the financial system.

Keywords: banking industry, financial vulnerability, capital shocks, economic growth, China, measurement
JEL classification: C13, E10, G21

Published: November 1, 2016  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Zhang, C., Kang, R., & Feng, C. (2016). Financial Vulnerability, Capital Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from China (2005-2014). European Journal of Business Science and Technology2(1), 23-31. doi: 10.11118/ejobsat.v2i1.56
Download citation

References

  1. Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and Levine, R. 2003. Bank Concentration and Crises. World Bank Working Paper.
  2. Bekaert, G. and Harvey, C. R. 2000. Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets. Journal of Finance, 55, 565-614. Go to original source...
  3. Brave, S. and Butters, R. A. 2011. Monitoring Financial Stability: A Financial Conditions Index Approach. Economic Perspectives, 35 (1), 22.
  4. Chen, H. and Wu, Z. 2004. A Theory and Empirical Analysis on the Fragility of China's Banking System. Research on Quantity Economy and Technology Economy in China, 9, 120-135.
  5. Chen, S., Shao, Z. and Yang, D. 2011. Identification and Prediction on Vulnerability of China's Banking System. Zhejiang Finance in China, 9, 44-50.
  6. Diamond, D. W. and Dybvig, P. H. 1983. Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity. Journal of Political Economy, 91 (3), 401-419. Go to original source...
  7. Fell, J. and Schinasi, G. 2005. Assessing Financial Stability Exploring the Boundaries of Analysis. National Institute Economic Review, 192, 682-697. Go to original source...
  8. Hatzius, J., Hooper, P., Mishkin, F. S., Schoenholtz, K. L. and Watson, M. W. 2010. Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis. NBER Working Paper No. 16150. Go to original source...
  9. He, D. and Lou, F. 2011. The Measurement and Analysis of Index of China's Financial Stability. Journal of Graduate School on Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 4, 16-25.
  10. Johnston, R. B., Chai, J. and Schumacher, L. 2000. Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities. IMF Working Paper WP/00/76. Go to original source...
  11. Kregel, J. A. 1997. Margins of Safety and Weight of The Argument in Generating Financial Fragility. Journal of Economics Issues, 31 (2), 543-548. Go to original source...
  12. Liu, G. 2012. Improving the Local Financial Management System. Chinese Finance, 15, 82-83.
  13. Minsky, H. 1982. The Financial Fragility Hypothesis: Capitalist Process and the Behavior of the Economy. In Kindleberger, C. P. and Laffargue, J.-P. (eds). Financial Crises. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  14. Mishkin, F. S. 1991. Anatomy of a Financial Crisis. NBER Working Paper No. 3934. Go to original source...
  15. Orlowski, L. T. 2008. Stages of the 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis: Is There a Wandering Asset-Price Bubble? Economics Discussion Paper No. 43. Go to original source...
  16. Tornell, A. Westermann, F. and Martinez, L. 2004. The Positive Link between Financial Liberalization, Growth and Crises. CESIFO Working Paper No. 1164. Go to original source...
  17. Tropeano, D. 2013. Financial Fragility in the Current European Crisis. CITYPERC Working Paper Series, No. 09. Go to original source...
  18. van den End, J. W. and Tabbae, M.. 2005. Measuring Financial Stability: Applying the MfRisk Model to the Netherlands. DNB Working Paper No. 30.
  19. Wan, X. 2008. The Judgment and Measurement on the Vulnerability of Financial System in China During 1987-2006. Financial research in China, 6, 80-93.

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0), which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.